Prostate Cancer UKs Diagnostic Demand Model

Prostate Cancer UK wants all eligible men to get access to high quality pre-biopsy MRI, in accordance with NICE guidelines, to enable the accurate detection of clinically significant prostate cancer and which can also enable some men to safely avoid an unnecessary biopsy.

With prostate cancer diagnoses set to increase in the coming years as the ageing population grows, Prostate Cancer UK wants to ensure radiology units receive the resources they need to future-proof their services.

In order to plan sufficient prostate cancer diagnostic resources, localities need to understand the numbers of men going through the prostate cancer diagnostic pathway. Data on this is currently lacking, making it difficult to future-proof high quality pre-biopsy mpMRI scanning capacity and to ensure this capacity matches demand from the prostate cancer diagnostic pathway.

Our Model

To support Cancer Alliances and Health Boards to estimate future prostate cancer diagnostic demand, Prostate Cancer UK has developed a ‘Diagnostic Demand Model’ which enables users to estimate future  diagnostic radiology services need for prostate cancer over the next 10 years and if this results in the need to replace or acquire new scanners, use this to produce a business case for additional MRI scanning capacity, including additional MRI scanners.

The model allows users to project the numbers of patients who will enter the prostate cancer diagnostic pathway up to 2030 to enable estimates of future diagnostic resource demand. Users can change parameters to reflect local practice including PSA referral values, MRI quality and MRI scan time.

Accessing the model

To access this model, you simply need to complete our user form.

You will then be sent the model along with supporting content and additional resources, which include:

• Population data: 10-year population forecasts reported at the Cancer Alliance (England) or Health board (Scotland and Wales) level. These can be used as data inputs for the model if local data is not available.
• Business case support. The demand model can be used to forecast MRI scanning capacity requirements. This document provides the necessary elements to support a business case for additional MRI capacity. Data taken from the demand model can be used as support in the business case. Please note that it may be necessary to replace and/or acquire scanners to meet the modelled demand.
• Video User guide A video taking you through using the model, explaining where you can enter data, and what outputs it produces.

Please contact [email protected] for any queries on the model or our support offer in this area.